the man behind linux
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page 8: The Next Five Years
Upside: What about the rivalry between the freeware and
the commercial advocates? Some purists don't like Red
Hat Inc. or other companies that sell commercial versions
of Linux; they think Linux should forever be free.
Torvalds: I try to avoid things [that are] black and
white, and my opinion is that with Linux you can avoid
the commercial. You can download everything you want
[from] the Internet, and you don't have to pay a cent. And
frankly, I don't want to be in that position anymore. I'm
happy that these days when I get a new machine, I just
insert a Red Hat CD or SuSE Inc. CD, and I install it
that way and then add my own special things on top of
[it]. I don't have to pay for that, but even if I had
to pay I would. They're providing a real service. It's
a choice. And if you [think in terms of] black and white
and think Linux shouldn't make money, then you have that
choice, but I think you're limiting yourself.
Upside: It sounds as if you're not concerned that Red
Hat and companies like it may co-opt Linux.
Torvalds: It's [because of] experience that a company like
Red Hat doesn't want to take over kernel development--they
know it's expensive. They want a lot of kernel developers
on staff because when a problem comes up, they want to
have people they can consider theirs.
But they don't want to get involved [in kernel
development]. A commercial company, if it's any good,
wants to do market research to see what the hell people
are doing, where [it] could give extra benefits and value
to users, makes sure [the product is] easy to install and
[addresses the] important details. It's about finishing
touches, and it's marketing and logistics.
Upside: What do you want to see Linux become in the next
five years?
Torvalds: To me, the most interesting part is always
[the many] different uses. I'm interested in the embedded
market because that has some specialized uses you don't
find anywhere else. Supercomputers are sexy from a
technical standpoint, but they're also interesting because
they have requirements you don't find anywhere else.
I think the most interesting market is the desktop because
the desktop isn't specialized. And that, in turn, means
there's never one perfect solution because people are
using so many different things. That's a hard problem
technically to solve, and that's why I've been most
interested in the desktop environment. I hope that in five
years you'll see Linux being a desktop choice. Maybe not
displacing Microsoft, but at least being a real choice
so [that] when people go into computer stores and buy
their computers in 2004, they'll have to [stop and ask
themselves whether they] want Linux installed, or Apple,
or Microsoft.
Upside: The Linux, open source business model seems to
be working. Are there any other emerging business models
you find interesting?
Torvalds: The one I find intriguing but don't believe is
the "Internet phrase" business model. The Internet phrase
business model [consists of] adding e- before your name
and increasing your stock [valuation] by an order of
magnitude. I find it intriguing, but I don't think it
[will] be successful in the long term.
Upside: What do you think will happen?
Torvalds: I think you'll find that the old-fashioned
industries [will] be very aware of the Internet. A few
companies [will] get a big name [from] the initial rush,
and those few [will] do OK; the rest [will] be one in a
dozen. Maybe Yahoo [Inc.] will survive because it [has
gotten] such a big name that [it] can make money [from]
just the name--name recognition is important. But they
aren't going to make money on their business models,
and they probably know that.
Upside: One last question. Where do you think the cost
of software is headed?
Torvalds: PC [companies] and Microsoft got into
the market by making cheap software at a time when
software was expensive. You had these small, aggressive
companies--Borland [International Inc., now Inprise
Corp.], for example, was well-known for making compilers,
and Microsoft started doing Basic. These weren't
expensive [software packages]; that's how they entered
the market. The sad fact is that now that Microsoft [has]
such a strong hold on the market, prices [have started]
shooting up again. [Inprise] made a big splash by making
one of the first compilers for [less than] $100, but
that big splash is long-forgotten. We're getting back to
the point where software is [becoming] expensive because
you have big companies that again have the clout to say,
"You will pay this much."
I'm hoping we'll have the big splash again. Now there's
an economic model that makes it possible to sell software
at a high price, and I'm convinced it's going away. That
makes people think I'm a communist, [but] I'm not--I'm
a big believer in competition. I just think competition
will win, and prices will come [down].