the man behind linux
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page 7: Linux vs. NT
Upside: On the subject of Ballmer and true intentions,
do you think Microsoft is truly afraid of Linux, or has
it been using the publicity as a legal argument in its
DoJ case?
Torvalds: I think it started as a legal argument,
especially last fall when Linux started to get some
attention. Nobody inside Microsoft took [Linux] that
seriously, but they saw a great [opportunity to] use
it as a legal argument. [But that] backfired because
it got a lot more journalists interested, saying,
"What is this Linux thing?"
Upside: Do you think Linux could ever become more widely
used than NT?
Torvalds: Between Linux and NT, the answer is a clear
"Yes." Windows NT and Linux have [nearly] the same size
market share. [Editor's note: According to International
Data Corp., at the end of 1998, Windows NT had a 38
percent share of the server market, compared with 16
percent for Linux, 19 percent for other Unix servers
and 23 percent for Novell Inc.'s NetWare.]
Linux in the future will pass [NT]. I'm not going to be
[too] surprised. The real goal--it's not going to happen
in a year or two, but it [may] start happening in three,
four, five--is the desktop.
Upside: You think Linux may challenge on the desktop in
three or four years.
Torvalds: In three or four years, I hope Linux will be
there as an alternative for [nontechnical computer users].
Upside: What would that do to the industry and to
Microsoft?
Torvalds: It doesn't necessarily mean that much. I think
[the market is] in a sick position where people don't
have choice.
Upside: You call it sick?
Torvalds: Yeah, it's sick. You have a huge homogeneous
market, and you have one entity that controls a large
portion of that market. [But] eventually monopolies do
not work.
In emerging markets, often one company holds [enormous
power]. That happened to the oil barons, it happened to
cars, and it happened to computer hardware, where IBM
[Corp.] was seen as unbeatable.
It always results in a more stable market when you have
five or six big companies. That's why I think the current
market is sick.